Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred
46K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.1%.
Measured over 46K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 46K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 46K
- Best context
- 59.2% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.4% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 59.1%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (189 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (232 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (72 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (944 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (956 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (162 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (2,229 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (2,826 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (430 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (3,661 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (5,566 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (933 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (4,175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (6,740 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,389 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (3,244 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (4,763 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,348 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (43 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (1,549 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,004 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (534 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (650 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (832 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (150 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (203 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.9% expected score (161 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred scores 54.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.3% and 55.1% — from 46K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 46K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred, White wins 52.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 46K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (5.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (24K games) against 51.5% in Rapid (5.0K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 51.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 495 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 54.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.8%, draws 9.3% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 370 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 54.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 181 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.7% of its games and loses 43.3%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.