1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 52.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 54.8%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 50%
Best in Classical (53%), worst in Bullet (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (117 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Rapid (37.9%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 38.5% (90% CI: 34.7%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 428 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 686 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 38.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 173 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (407 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.3%-45.6%) win rate for white (954 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.