Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense
20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.
Measured over 20K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 20K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 20K
- Best context
- 53.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 40.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.9%
- Draws
- 6.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (102 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (208 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (299 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (73 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (450 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (865 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (212 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (548 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,595 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (315 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (718 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,695 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (572 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,760 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (524 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,029 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (3,231 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (335 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (917 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (1,165 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (104 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 48.0% — from 20K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 20K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 20K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (4.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.7% in Blitz (13K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (2.2K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 180 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 588 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 35.2%, draws 17.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 8.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.4%, draws 11.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 129 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.