20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 48.0%), based on 20K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 44% → 35%
Similar across time controls (~46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 20K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.4%) outperforms Classical (42.5%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 180 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 588 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 17.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
In Classical games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense has a 42.5% (90% CI: 35.5%-49.7%) win rate for white (129 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.