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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.8%

45%60%
Floor54.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.4%.

Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
19K
Best context
59.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
52.0% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
93.8%
Draws
6.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 57.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 25.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (231 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (382 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (408 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,511 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (456 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (2,062 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (582 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (2,076 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (729 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (4,054 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (295 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (2,246 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System scores 54.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.3% and 55.4% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate?

Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System, White wins 51.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.8% (3.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.1% in Blitz (13K games) against 52.2% in Rapid (2.1K games).

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 299 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 731 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.5% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.9%, draws 11.6% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.5%, draws 7.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 42.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.