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Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation

1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 50.6%Based on 1.2K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%6.8%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Ne4
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation
Analyzen=1.2K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 50.6%), based on 1.2K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.0% win rate (24 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.3% win rate (52 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (82 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (161 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.4% win rate (221 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (365 games)
  • 2500+: 43.1% win rate (243 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (48%), worst in Classical (11%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 42.0% win rate (214 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (835 games)
  • Rapid: 48.3% win rate (101 games)
  • Classical: 11.1% win rate (3 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (75 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (268 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (221 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.8%) outperforms Rapid (46.3%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 42.5%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 161 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 221 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 365 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 39.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 243 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-56.4%) win rate for white (214 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.6%) win rate for white (835 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 38.3%-54.4%) win rate for white (101 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.