Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense
16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 10.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 16K
- Best context
- 54.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 42 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.4%
- Draws
- 10.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 71.5% at 0-999, 43.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (105 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (240 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (204 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (641 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (128 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (448 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,597 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (317 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (652 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (2,656 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (485 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,209 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,825 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (438 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,025 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (1,146 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (126 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (19 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 49.8% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense, Black wins 43.9%, draws 10.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (3.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (10K games) against 50.5% in Rapid (1.6K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 89.4 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 403 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 981 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 7.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 8.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.9%, draws 9.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 33.5%, draws 23.3% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 49 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.2%, draws 12.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 9.2% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.0%, draws 15.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.6%, draws 19.6% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 185 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.9% of its games and loses 45.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.