390 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a 41.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 37.0% and 45.2%), based on 390 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 34%
Best in Classical (46%), worst in Bullet (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a 54.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 390 rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (222 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (60.9%) outperforms Blitz (53.8%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a 57.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a 60.9% (90% CI: 53.2%-68.3%) win rate for white (111 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System has a 53.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-58.9%) win rate for white (245 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Macieja System is statistically favors white with a 54.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-58.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.