Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10K
- Best context
- 49.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.5% at 0-999, 47.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (151 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (121 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 77.9% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (417 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (397 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (744 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (150 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,000 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,310 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (255 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,005 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,101 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (175 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (772 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (811 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (83 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (247 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (176 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 49.2% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (2.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (4.8K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (761 games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.8%, draws 1.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 293 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 878 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 6.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 8.9% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 430 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 761 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.