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Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 49.2%Based on 10K games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
46.1%4.5%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Ne4
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 49.2%), based on 10K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~40%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.5% win rate (20 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.0% win rate (67 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.8% win rate (293 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (878 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (1,783 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (2,582 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (2,292 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (1,667 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (430 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 46.2% win rate (4,376 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (4,835 games)
  • Rapid: 48.3% win rate (761 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (38 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 77.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (417 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (744 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (150 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,005 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (772 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (811 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Rapid (45.8%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 47.0% (90% CI: 42.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 878 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 430 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.9%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-48.8%) win rate for white (761 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4 is statistically balanced with a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.