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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation

2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.9%Range (90% confident): 40.4% – 43.5%Based on 2.9K games
0%41.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.4% – 43.5%
Outcome Distribution
40.4%3.0%56.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...dxc4
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation
Analyzen=2.9K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 41.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.4% and 43.5%), based on 2.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.7% win rate (34 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (123 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.0% win rate (246 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.4% win rate (459 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.0% win rate (684 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.0% win rate (722 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (387 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (166 games)
  • 2500+: 40.3% win rate (37 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (43%), worst in Blitz (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 42.3% win rate (844 games)
  • Blitz: 38.9% win rate (1,572 games)
  • Rapid: 42.2% win rate (426 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.2% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (259 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (399 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.0%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 62.2% win rate for white (459 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (58.0%) outperforms Rapid (53.9%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 123 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 60.4% (90% CI: 55.3%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 62.2% (90% CI: 58.5%-65.9%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 54.4%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 684 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 722 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 387 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-58.0%) win rate for white (844 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 58.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-60.0%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-57.9%) win rate for white (426 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Ragozin Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.0%-58.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.