Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation
158K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.5%.
Measured over 158K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 158K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 158K
- Best context
- 50.2% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.5% at 0-999, 40.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (237 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (167 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (731 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (811 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (106 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,895 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (3,335 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (499 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,182 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (11,813 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,043 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (160 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (7,784 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (28,221 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (5,677 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (516 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (9,743 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (35,291 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (6,590 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (370 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (9,598 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (20,061 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (2,649 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (96 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,896 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (2,046 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.8% expected score (74 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 48.5% — from 158K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 158K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 158K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (42K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (102K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (18K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 424 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.0%, draws 7.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.0%, draws 8.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 102K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.8%, draws 9.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.