14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 50.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 51.6%), based on 14K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 42%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (611 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.0%) outperforms Classical (46.7%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 181 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 611 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.5%) win rate for white (9.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 42.2%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.