Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation
14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.
Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 14K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.3% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (100 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (217 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (300 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (88 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,183 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (178 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (838 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (3,250 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (374 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,162 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,135 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (383 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (719 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (638 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation scores 50.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 51.6% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation, Black wins 47.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 14K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (9.7K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (1.1K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 181 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 611 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 7.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 8.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.3%, draws 7.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.6% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.