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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation

4.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 50.7%Based on 4.8K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%4.8%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...b6
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation
Analyzen=4.8K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 50.7%), based on 4.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 68% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 68.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.6% win rate (34 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (89 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.2% win rate (262 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.7% win rate (605 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (997 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.3% win rate (1,249 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.5% win rate (1,277 games)
  • 2500+: 37.5% win rate (304 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in Bullet (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.6% win rate (1,078 games)
  • Blitz: 46.9% win rate (3,177 games)
  • Rapid: 50.6% win rate (533 games)
  • Classical: 54.2% win rate (40 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (151 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (131 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (374 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (88 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (181 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (637 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (234 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (855 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (285 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (922 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.2% win rate for white (304 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.0%) outperforms Rapid (44.6%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 40.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 262 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 38.5%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 605 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 997 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 304 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.4%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.1%-48.2%) win rate for white (533 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.