Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation
154K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.
Measured over 154K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 154K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 154K
- Best context
- 56.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 57.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (114 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (588 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (716 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (120 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (1,431 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,670 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (591 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (2,805 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,823 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,620 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (76 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (4,910 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (12,984 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (3,540 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (238 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,012 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (23,140 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (4,881 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (315 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (11,286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (29,684 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (3,872 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (104 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (10,839 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (15,835 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,380 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (3,327 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (2,152 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (34 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation scores 51.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 51.4% — from 154K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 154K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 154K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (5.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (94K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (16K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 53.8%, draws 0.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 228 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 94K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 41.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 772 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.