245 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 39.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 34.5% and 44.6%), based on 245 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 42%
Best in Rapid (46%), worst in Bullet (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 245 rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 59.3% win rate for white (87 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a sharpness score of 91.3 (decisive), meaning 91.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 16.9% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-61.3%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Stahlberg Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-61.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.