TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation

161K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.1%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.3%Based on 161K games
0%49.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%4.3%48.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bb7
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation
Analyzen=161K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.3%), based on 161K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.6% win rate (285 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (1,491 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (5,353 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (14,054 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (26,974 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (40,522 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (37,597 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (27,409 games)
  • 2500+: 41.2% win rate (6,975 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.9% win rate (52 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (62,841 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (84,288 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (12,828 games)
  • Classical: 41.6% win rate (651 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (801 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (599 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,661 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,343 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (338 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (6,650 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,033 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (10,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (13,903 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,292 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (14,092 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (22,366 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,782 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (12,618 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (21,269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,532 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (11,229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (14,543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (4,329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (2,505 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (135 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Continuations (4)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne4
49.4%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, Fischer Variation
47.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, American Variation
48.4%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, Romanishin–Psakhis Variation
49.5%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 161K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (7.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.3%) by -4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 285 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 0.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white (84K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.3%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-52.8%) win rate for white (651 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.