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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation

181K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.2%

40%55%
Floor46.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.4%.

Measured over 181K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 181K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
181K
Best context
51.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
42.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.2% at 0-999, 46.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (619 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (2,441 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (519 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (7,093 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (9,988 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (14,465 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,793 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (13,808 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (23,491 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (4,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (13,696 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (25,479 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (5,687 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (228 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (9,656 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (15,227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (3,411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (6,454 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,831 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (834 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,943 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.4% — from 181K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
181K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 181K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.8% in Blitz (96K games) against 46.4% in Rapid (19K games).

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.5%, draws 21.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 96K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.8%, draws 10.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 763 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 51.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.