TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation

181K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.2%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%Based on 181K games
0%46.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%4.4%51.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...d5
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation
Analyzen=181K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 46.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.4%), based on 181K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (1,321 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (5,340 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (14,567 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.1% win rate (27,362 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (41,882 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.2% win rate (45,097 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.5% win rate (28,417 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.2% win rate (13,147 games)
  • 2500+: 36.5% win rate (3,448 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (44%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.9% win rate (56 games)
  • Bullet: 43.7% win rate (64,745 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (95,857 games)
  • Rapid: 43.3% win rate (19,160 games)
  • Classical: 42.8% win rate (763 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (619 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (2,441 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (519 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (7,093 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (9,988 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (14,465 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,793 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (13,808 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (23,491 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (4,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (13,696 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (25,479 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (5,687 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (228 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (9,656 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (15,227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (3,411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (6,454 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,831 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (834 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,943 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 181K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.3%) outperforms Classical (47.2%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.0%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 21.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.6%) win rate for white (65K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.1%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.1%) win rate for white (763 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.