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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation

2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.3%

45%60%
Floor49.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.1%.

Measured over 2.0K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 23.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.0K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
42 moves
Games that end decisively
76.7%
Draws
23.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · Blitz best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.7% at 0-999, 53.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 68.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (252 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 28.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (234 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation scores 51.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 53.1% — from 2.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation, Black wins 39.6%, draws 23.3% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 58.3% (240 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (1.1K games) against 55.8% in Rapid (312 games).

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation has a sharpness score of 76.7 (drawish), meaning 76.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 56.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 240 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 426 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 354 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.7%, draws 7.1% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 231 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 10.2%, draws 82.3% and loses 7.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 472 Lichess games, which average 63 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 32.5%, draws 29.6% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 538 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.9%, draws 17.6% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.6%, draws 28.2% and loses 30.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 312 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.6% of its games and loses 37.1%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.