707 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 54.1%), based on 707 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 40%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Bullet (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 707 rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.5% win rate for white (290 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (45.4%) outperforms Rapid (33.9%) by 11.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 40.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 290 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 34.9%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 18.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 41.6%-56.4%) win rate for white (122 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 41.8%-49.0%) win rate for white (522 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.