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Nimzowitsch Defense

47 variations · 25M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Nimzowitsch Defense is balanced for White at 51.8% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 51.9%Aggregated from 47 variations
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 51.9%
ContextOverall · n=25M
Outcome Distribution
50.0%3.6%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.d4
Nimzowitsch Defense
Variations47
Games (Context)25M
Avg Length33 moves
Draw Rate3.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen AttackTop Pick
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5 3.dxe5 Nxe5 4.Nf3
Min adv +9.9% · n=503K
55.1%
#2Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Pin Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.e5 Ng4 4.d4 d6 5.h3 Nh6 6.Bb5
Min adv +8.6% · n=1.3K
56.5%
#3Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Keres Attack
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5 3.dxe5 Nxe5 4.Nc3
Min adv +8.4% · n=215K
54.4%
#4Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Richter Gambit
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 dxe4 4.d5 Nb8 5.f3
Min adv +7.6% · n=3.4K
55.2%
#5Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.e5 Ng4 4.d4 d6 5.h3 Nh6 6.exd6
Min adv +6.0% · n=1.2K
55.4%
#6Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 d5 3.e5
Min adv +4.0% · n=2.5M
52.1%
#7Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5 3.d5
Min adv +3.6% · n=4.9M
51.8%
#8Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3
Min adv +2.8% · n=2.4M
51.5%
#9Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 d5 3.Be3
Min adv +1.6% · n=14K
51.5%
#10Nimzowitsch Defense: Pseudo-Spanish Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Bb5
Min adv +1.5% · n=345K
50.9%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Nimzowitsch Defense family has a 51.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 51.9%), aggregated from 47 variations and 25M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.4% win rate (2,150,303 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.9% win rate (2,946,124 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.3% win rate (3,756,999 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (4,285,740 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.6% win rate (4,240,092 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (3,690,200 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (2,233,512 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (1,048,282 games)
  • 2500+: 48.2% win rate (177,574 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Blitz (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (165,028 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (8,281,436 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (12,053,939 games)
  • Rapid: 51.0% win rate (3,881,421 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (147,002 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (5,711 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (490,861 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,121,421 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (527,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (4,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (14,660 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (762,310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,499,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (653,599 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (15,974 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (28,318 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,065,779 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,880,222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (749,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (33,561 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (41,858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,311,999 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,137,784 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (747,536 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (46,563 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (40,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,389,638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,165,281 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (615,203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (29,934 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (23,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,378,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,876,743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (398,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (12,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (7,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,027,058 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,034,652 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (160,945 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (3,119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (2,883 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (705,864 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (311,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (27,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (451 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (149,427 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (26,767 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (66 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (47)

1
Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense29K games
58.8%
2
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack503K games
55.1%
3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line105K games
55.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Riemann Defense189K games
54.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Pin Variation1.3K games
56.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation47K games
54.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Keres Attack215K games
54.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit43K games
54.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Richter Gambit3.4K games
55.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit2.1K games
55.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation127K games
53.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation806K games
53.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit32K games
53.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit2.0K games
55.0%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit3.3K games
54.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation1.2K games
55.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense53K games
53.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit75K games
53.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation1.4M games
52.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Pirc Connection57K games
52.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation1.1M games
52.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation177K games
52.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit3.3K games
53.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection374K games
52.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit3.0K games
53.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense4.8M games
52.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit17K games
52.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation2.5M games
52.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Richter Gambit132 games
59.0%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation4.9M games
51.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation2.4M games
51.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation888K games
51.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit42K games
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit14K games
51.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Pseudo-Spanish Variation345K games
50.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation1.4M games
50.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Vehre Variation8.0K games
51.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Brandics Gambit126 games
57.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted156K games
49.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation473K games
49.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation21K games
49.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit289K games
48.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation166K games
48.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit708K games
48.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit147K games
47.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit5.7K games
47.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, El Columpio Gambit117 games
47.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense family has a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, aggregated from 47 variations and 25M rated games from Lichess.

How many Nimzowitsch Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 47 Nimzowitsch Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (2.9M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.7%) by 3.2% across all Nimzowitsch Defense variations.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense?

Nimzowitsch Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense a good opening family?

The Nimzowitsch Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 47 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.