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Nimzowitsch Defense

47 variations · 25M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

48.2%

45%55%
Floor48.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 25M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#32 of 62
Games in this context
25M
Best context
56.0% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.5% at 2500+ Rapid
Variations measured
47
Average game length
33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado CountergambitBest here
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3 f5
Floor 52.2% · 147K games
52.4%
#2Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5 3.dxe5 d6
Floor 51.6% · 708K games
51.7%
#3Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 d5
Floor 51.3% · 166K games
51.5%
#4Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 Qxd5
Floor 49.2% · 1.4M games
49.3%
#5Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5
Floor 48.5% · 888K games
48.6%
#6Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit
1.e4 Nc6 2.d4 e5 3.dxe5 Bc5
Floor 48.0% · 42K games
48.4%
#7Nimzowitsch Defense
1.e4 Nc6
Floor 47.9% · 4.8M games
47.9%
#8Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nc3 e6
Floor 47.6% · 374K games
47.7%
#9Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3 d6
Floor 47.3% · 1.1M games
47.4%
#10Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
1.e4 Nc6 2.Nf3 e6
Floor 47.3% · 1.4M games
47.3%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.7% at 0-999, 37.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (5,711 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (490,861 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,121,421 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (527,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (4,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (14,660 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (762,310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,499,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (653,599 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (15,974 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (28,318 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,065,779 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,880,222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (749,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (33,561 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (41,858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,311,999 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (2,137,784 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (747,536 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (46,563 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (40,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,389,638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,165,281 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (615,203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (29,934 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (23,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,378,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,876,743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (398,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (12,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (7,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,027,058 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,034,652 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (160,945 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (3,119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (2,883 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (705,864 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (311,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (27,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (451 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (149,427 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (26,767 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (66 games)

47 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit147K games
52.4%Floor 52.2%
2
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit708K games
51.7%Floor 51.6%
3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit5.7K games
52.5%Floor 51.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation166K games
51.5%Floor 51.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit289K games
51.5%Floor 51.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation473K games
50.8%Floor 50.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted156K games
50.7%Floor 50.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation21K games
50.9%Floor 50.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation1.4M games
49.3%Floor 49.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Pseudo-Spanish Variation345K games
49.2%Floor 49.0%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation2.4M games
48.5%Floor 48.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation888K games
48.6%Floor 48.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation4.9M games
48.2%Floor 48.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit42K games
48.4%Floor 48.0%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation2.5M games
48.0%Floor 47.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense4.8M games
47.9%Floor 47.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit14K games
48.5%Floor 47.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Vehre Variation8.0K games
48.7%Floor 47.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection374K games
47.7%Floor 47.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation1.1M games
47.4%Floor 47.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation1.4M games
47.3%Floor 47.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation177K games
47.4%Floor 47.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Pirc Connection57K games
47.1%Floor 46.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit17K games
47.3%Floor 46.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation806K games
46.7%Floor 46.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit75K games
46.9%Floor 46.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense53K games
46.8%Floor 46.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation127K games
46.6%Floor 46.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit32K games
46.4%Floor 45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Keres Attack215K games
45.7%Floor 45.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Riemann Defense189K games
45.5%Floor 45.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation47K games
45.5%Floor 45.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit43K games
45.4%Floor 45.0%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit3.0K games
46.4%Floor 44.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit3.3K games
46.3%Floor 44.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack503K games
44.9%Floor 44.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line105K games
45.0%Floor 44.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, El Columpio Gambit117 games
52.1%Floor 44.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit3.3K games
45.5%Floor 44.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Richter Gambit3.4K games
44.8%Floor 43.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit2.0K games
45.1%Floor 43.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit2.1K games
44.5%Floor 42.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation1.2K games
44.7%Floor 42.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Pin Variation1.3K games
43.5%Floor 41.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense29K games
41.3%Floor 40.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Brandics Gambit126 games
42.6%Floor 35.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Richter Gambit132 games
41.0%Floor 34.2%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense family scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 48.2% — from 25M Lichess games across 47 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
25M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense win rate?

Across the Nimzowitsch Defense's 47 variations, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 25M rated games from Lichess.

How many Nimzowitsch Defense variations are there?

47 Nimzowitsch Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (2.2M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (12M games) against 46.7% in Rapid (3.9M games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense?

Nimzowitsch Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense a good opening family?

The Nimzowitsch Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.4% and loses 50.0%. Results differ between its 47 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.