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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack

503K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.1%

45%60%
Floor55.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.3%.

Measured over 503K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 503K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
503K
Best context
63.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
51.3% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.1 · Trap factor: +12.8 · 503K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.7% at 0-999, 68.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (15,831 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18,459 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (7,960 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (358 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (32,008 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (26,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (9,824 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (533 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (39,986 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (29,872 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (9,444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (39,268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (28,773 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (8,763 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (554 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (629 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (38,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (25,449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (6,500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (300 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (33,627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (25,186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (4,078 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (28,325 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (22,672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (2,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (29,305 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (8,742 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (570 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (5,997 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (369 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 81.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack scores 55.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.0% and 55.3% — from 503K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
503K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 503K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (6.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.8% in Blitz (186K games) against 56.5% in Rapid (49K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 54.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.7%, draws 7.0% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.0%, draws 1.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 262K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 186K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.9% of its games and loses 42.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.