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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack

503K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.1%Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.3%Based on 503K games
0%55.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.3%
Outcome Distribution
52.9%4.3%42.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack
Analyzen=503K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 55.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 55.3%), based on 503K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.1 · Trap factor: +12.8 · n=503K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 52% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.9% win rate (42,453 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.6% win rate (69,002 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (80,266 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (77,968 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (70,951 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (63,396 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.1% win rate (53,489 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.6% win rate (38,727 games)
  • 2500+: 54.7% win rate (6,389 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.0% win rate (2,953 games)
  • Bullet: 52.6% win rate (262,420 games)
  • Blitz: 53.2% win rate (186,132 games)
  • Rapid: 53.7% win rate (49,397 games)
  • Classical: 53.1% win rate (1,739 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (15,831 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18,459 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (7,960 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (358 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (32,008 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (26,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (9,824 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (533 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (39,986 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (29,872 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (9,444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (39,268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (28,773 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (8,763 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (554 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (629 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (38,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (25,449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (6,500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (300 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (33,627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (25,186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (4,078 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (28,325 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (22,672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (2,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (29,305 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (8,742 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (570 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (5,997 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (369 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 81.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 503K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.7%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.4%) win rate for white (186K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.1%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-55.1%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack is statistically favors white with a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.