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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Qxd5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.3%

45%55%
Floor49.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.4M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.4M
Best context
53.4% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
45.2% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.5% at 0-999, 49.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (10,806 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (14,864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (5,120 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (23,324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (32,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (9,379 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (128 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (42,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (67,893 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (16,798 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (66,731 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (122,580 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (28,186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (84,822 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (199,645 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (40,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (90,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (208,118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (36,170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.5% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (75,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (97,559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (14,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (53,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (27,747 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (11,257 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
50.6%
Continuations (1)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit
46.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 49.3% — from 1.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (31K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (772K games) against 47.2% in Rapid (154K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 219K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 327K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 336K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 188K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 47.4%, draws 7.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 459K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 772K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 154K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.