TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%Based on 1.4M games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.0%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qxd5
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=1.4M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.8%), based on 1.4M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (30,897 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (65,304 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (127,889 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (218,995 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (326,520 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (335,789 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.5% win rate (188,103 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (84,185 games)
  • 2500+: 45.2% win rate (12,813 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.9% win rate (1,144 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (458,678 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (772,238 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (153,852 games)
  • Classical: 49.6% win rate (4,583 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (64 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (10,806 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (14,864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (5,120 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (23,324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (32,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (9,379 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (42,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (67,893 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (16,798 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (66,731 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (122,580 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (28,186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.0% expected score (159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (84,822 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (199,645 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (40,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (90,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (208,118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (36,170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.6% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (75,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (97,559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (14,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (53,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (27,747 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (11,257 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Continuations (1)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit
46.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (128K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.4%) outperforms Bullet (48.3%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 219K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 327K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 336K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 188K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.3%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate for white (459K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white (772K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (154K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.8%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.