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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit

289K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Nc3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.6%

45%55%
Floor48.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 289K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 289K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
289K
Best context
56.0% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
45.5% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.6% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 42.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (5,729 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9,117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,958 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (13,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (19,191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (6,305 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (19,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (29,232 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (8,534 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (263 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (22,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (34,565 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (9,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (20,152 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (29,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (6,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (257 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (14,553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (14,555 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (2,895 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (7,720 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (604 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,000 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 48.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 48.8% — from 289K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
289K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 289K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (142K games) against 50.5% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 43.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 43.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 44.6%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 693 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.6%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 374 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 142K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.