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Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.5%

45%55%
Floor51.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.4M
Best context
59.8% at 1000-1199 Classical
Worst context
45.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 63.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (781 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (56,816 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (108,419 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (52,753 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (527 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (2,200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (76,830 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (151,356 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (61,435 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (1,673 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (3,742 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (90,559 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (191,192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (72,806 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (3,073 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (5,075 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (105,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (213,323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (76,000 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (4,666 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (106,663 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (214,183 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (63,713 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (2,880 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (2,597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (115,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (187,940 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (40,606 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (83,241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (106,293 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (14,949 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (328 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (64,298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (42,602 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (3,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (19,545 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (3,822 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation scores 51.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.4% and 51.5% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.1% (219K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (1.2M games) against 53.9% in Rapid (386K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 219K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 293K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 361K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 405K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 392K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 348K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 206K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 719K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 386K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.