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Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.5%Based on 2.4M games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.8%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.Nf3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
Analyzen=2.4M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.5%), based on 2.4M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.1% win rate (219,296 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (293,494 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (361,372 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (404,725 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (391,568 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (347,814 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.4% win rate (205,921 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.0% win rate (110,329 games)
  • 2500+: 46.7% win rate (23,527 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Bullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.3% win rate (19,944 games)
  • Bullet: 49.0% win rate (719,020 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (1,219,130 games)
  • Rapid: 51.6% win rate (385,502 games)
  • Classical: 55.8% win rate (14,450 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (781 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (56,816 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (108,419 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (52,753 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (527 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (2,200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (76,830 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (151,356 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (61,435 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (1,673 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (3,742 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (90,559 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (191,192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (72,806 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (3,073 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (5,075 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (105,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (213,323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (76,000 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (4,666 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (106,663 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (214,183 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (63,713 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (2,880 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (2,597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (115,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (187,940 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (40,606 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (83,241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (106,293 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (14,949 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (328 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (64,298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (42,602 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (3,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (19,545 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (3,822 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, El Columpio Gambit
46.0%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (293K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.3%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 219K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 293K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 361K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 405K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 392K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 348K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 206K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 110K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white (719K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (386K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.5%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.