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Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation

806K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.7%

40%55%
Floor46.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.8%.

Measured over 806K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 806K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
806K
Best context
57.1% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
36.3% at 1200-1399 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.1% at 0-999, 32.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (120 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (12,596 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (31,148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (15,590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (254 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (19,637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (43,914 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (18,477 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (28,173 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (61,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (22,354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (955 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (36,700 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (73,191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (25,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (1,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (39,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (80,628 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (23,138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (44,207 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (72,717 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (16,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (508 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (35,719 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (38,136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (8,123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (29,995 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (10,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (6,830 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,028 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 7.9% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation scores 46.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 46.8% — from 806K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
806K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 806K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.0% (42K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.5% in Blitz (413K games) against 43.7% in Rapid (130K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 138K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 1.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 254K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 413K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 130K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 51.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.