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Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.3%

40%55%
Floor47.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.4M
Best context
53.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
38.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.9% at 0-999, 27.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (339 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (34,501 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (67,071 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (31,211 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (252 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (844 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (56,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (114,851 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (43,679 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (1,087 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (1,339 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (69,737 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (152,738 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (59,196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (2,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,716 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (73,645 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (159,122 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (61,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (60,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (117,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (44,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (2,132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (740 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (47,207 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (56,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (19,669 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (27,818 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (19,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (3,816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (14,477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (5,633 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (676 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (2,651 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (558 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation scores 47.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 47.4% — from 1.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.5% (133K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (693K games) against 46.9% in Rapid (264K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 133K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 216K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 285K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 299K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 225K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.5%, draws 7.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 386K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 693K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 264K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.