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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation

2.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.1%

45%60%
Floor52.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.5M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.5M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.5M
Best context
57.2% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
49.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 60.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (37,196 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (116,791 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (28,195 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (131 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (62,171 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (219,778 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (84,991 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (768 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (307 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (82,680 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (264,948 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (119,291 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (3,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (96,920 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (269,304 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (115,707 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (6,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (601 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (92,400 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (236,030 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (84,858 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (4,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (84,913 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (184,544 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (46,409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (1,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (60,209 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (96,480 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (18,297 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (422 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (39,648 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (31,384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (3,922 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (10,189 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (6,772 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 80.3% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation scores 52.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.0% and 52.1% — from 2.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 2.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (368K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (1.4M games) against 53.1% in Rapid (502K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 182K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 368K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 470K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 489K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 418K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 318K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 176K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 33.0%, draws 36.3% and loses 30.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 47 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.0%, draws 1.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 566K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 502K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.