888K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 48.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 48.7%), based on 888K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 43%
Best in Classical (51%), worst in Bullet (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 888K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (136K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 6.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 140K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 136K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.3%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.
In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white (393K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white (341K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white (137K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.8%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.