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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation

888K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.6%

45%55%
Floor48.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.

Measured over 888K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 888K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
888K
Best context
65.4% at 0-999 Classical
Worst context
44.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.3% at 0-999, 49.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.6% expected score (664 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (28,484 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (64,033 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (45,989 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (503 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (1,216 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (33,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (47,212 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (32,120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (1,470 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (1,828 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (44,487 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (46,846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (21,399 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (2,015 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (3,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (57,355 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (49,579 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (15,860 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (1,549 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (2,294 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (70,417 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (51,428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (10,764 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (637 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (73,227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (48,223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (7,125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (234 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (50,968 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (28,564 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,437 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (29,735 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (5,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (441 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (4,446 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Continuations (9)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit
46.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Paulsen Attack
52.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Keres Attack
52.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Riemann Defense
52.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line
53.5%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit
50.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit
52.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit
51.2%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 48.7% — from 888K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
888K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 888K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (140K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (341K games) against 51.2% in Rapid (137K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 140K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 136K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 1.2% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 393K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 341K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 137K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.9% of its games and loses 49.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.