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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit

708K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.7%

45%55%
Floor51.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.8%.

Measured over 708K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 708K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
708K
Best context
53.3% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
45.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.7% at 0-999, 37.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (5,592 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (10,336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (3,014 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (20,478 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (7,052 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (259 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (22,243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (33,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (11,875 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (33,514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (51,646 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (14,939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (554 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (419 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (53,395 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (76,788 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (18,726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (64,855 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (96,698 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (18,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (498 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (53,456 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (49,506 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (8,917 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (24,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (8,141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (3,370 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (374 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit scores 51.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.6% and 51.8% — from 708K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
708K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 708K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (181K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (347K games) against 50.7% in Rapid (85K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 101K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 150K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 181K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 272K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 347K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 46.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.