Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation

166K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
2...d5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.5%

45%55%
Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.

Measured over 166K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 166K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
166K
Best context
53.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
44.8% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.7% at 0-999, 46.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (297 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (7,891 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (10,860 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (5,715 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (450 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,946 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (10,263 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (4,808 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (599 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (7,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (12,049 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (5,686 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (239 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (8,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (13,693 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (5,749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (404 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,609 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (12,688 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,698 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (258 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (7,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (10,071 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,585 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (5,685 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (4,811 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (821 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,836 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (109 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (626 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (74 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Continuations (10)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
47.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit
46.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation
50.8%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit
51.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit
52.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation
47.1%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit
51.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, Vehre Variation
49.3%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation scores 51.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.7% — from 166K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
166K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 166K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.4% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (76K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (30K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 700 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 1.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 56K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.7% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.