Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation

473K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

3...dxe4

Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.3%

45%55%

Floor49.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.

Measured over 473K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

47.3%3.9%48.8%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 473K games

Rank among the families White can choose here: not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context: 473K
Best context: 59.0% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context: 46.8% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length: 30 moves
Games that end decisively: 96.1%
Draws: 3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.3 · Trap factor: +4.5 · 473K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.9%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (80 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (12,570 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (32,156 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (17,388 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (154 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (194 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (18,584 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (33,904 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (17,226 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (499 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (285 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (25,091 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (40,528 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (18,712 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (708 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (520 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (28,822 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (46,591 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (19,583 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (965 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (393 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (28,353 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (37,916 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (15,927 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (582 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (230 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (21,561 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (20,217 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (7,081 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (214 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (114 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (12,059 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (5,289 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (1,188 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,086 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,428 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (150 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (551 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.5% expected score (79 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Nimzowitsch Defense

50.3%

Variations (5)

Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation

50.3%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation

50.2%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation

49.6%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation

48.7%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation

50.9%

Continuations (6)

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation

50.8%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit

51.2%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit

52.3%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Richter Gambit

53.3%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit

52.1%

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit

53.8%

Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores 49.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.4% — from 473K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 473K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 473K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (636 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (218K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (97K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 96K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.1%, draws 8.1% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 636 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 153K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 218K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 97K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.3% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.