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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit

43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.

Measured over 43K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 43K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
43K
Best context
51.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
41.4% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −0.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.6 · Trap factor: +6.4 · 43K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 43.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (6,829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (5,692 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,330 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (3,309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (841 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (2,211 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (2,090 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.5% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,770 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (607 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,196 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,761 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (648 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (200 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.0% and 45.8% — from 43K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
43K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 43K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (2.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (19K games) against 43.1% in Rapid (13K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 41.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 852 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 42.7%, draws 0.8% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 330 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 576 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.1% of its games and loses 52.3%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.