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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit

43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.8%Based on 43K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.8%
Outcome Distribution
43.1%4.6%52.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e5
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit
Analyzen=43K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 45.8%), based on 43K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -0.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.6 · Trap factor: +6.4 · n=43K

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.4% win rate (13,995 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.9% win rate (7,653 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.7% win rate (5,326 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (4,202 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.4% win rate (2,839 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (2,315 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.4% win rate (2,734 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (3,081 games)
  • 2500+: 45.3% win rate (852 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.7% win rate (330 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (9,530 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (19,147 games)
  • Rapid: 40.3% win rate (13,414 games)
  • Classical: 35.2% win rate (576 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (6,829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (5,692 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,330 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (3,309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (841 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (2,211 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (2,090 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.5% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,770 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (607 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,196 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,761 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (648 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (200 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 43K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.2% win rate for white (5.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.2%) outperforms Bullet (50.0%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.0%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.1%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 852 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 56.6% (90% CI: 52.1%-61.0%) win rate for white (330 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.9%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit has a 57.2% (90% CI: 53.8%-60.6%) win rate for white (576 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Heinola-Deppe Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.