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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit

3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 47.9%Based on 3.0K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%3.2%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...a6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit
Analyzen=3.0K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 47.9%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -5.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.6% win rate (337 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.3% win rate (444 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.1% win rate (526 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.0% win rate (540 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (467 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.6% win rate (293 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (178 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (216 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (16 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (57%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.5% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (844 games)
  • Blitz: 46.2% win rate (1,466 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (668 games)
  • Classical: 37.7% win rate (29 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499———
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (192 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (261 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (285 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (159 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (197 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (93 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (63 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (293 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.7%) outperforms Blitz (50.5%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 337 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 444 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 526 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 540 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 467 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 56.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 216 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-55.5%) win rate for white (844 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.6%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-57.9%) win rate for white (668 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Brandics Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.