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Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 52.2%Based on 14K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.1%2.8%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Be3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 52.2%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (732 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (1,459 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.9% win rate (2,753 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (3,430 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (3,075 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (2,015 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (632 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.7% win rate (178 games)
  • 2500+: 33.3% win rate (6 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.5% win rate (128 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (4,664 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (6,965 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (2,456 games)
  • Classical: 53.3% win rate (67 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (349 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (458 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (235 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (401 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (643 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (867 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (540 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (367 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.5%) by 11.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 732 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 632 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 42.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 40.5% (90% CI: 33.6%-47.7%) win rate for white (128 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.3%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Hornung Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.