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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit

3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.3%Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 47.7%Based on 3.3K games
0%46.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%5.0%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qh4
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit
Analyzen=3.3K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 47.7%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.5% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.5 · Trap factor: -2.7 · n=3.3K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 26%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.2% win rate (349 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (266 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.9% win rate (433 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.3% win rate (397 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.8% win rate (331 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (489 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.3% win rate (705 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.9% win rate (240 games)
  • 2500+: 26.4% win rate (61 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.7% win rate (31 games)
  • Bullet: 42.6% win rate (1,356 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (1,395 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (463 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (26 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (122 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 33.3% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (52 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (174 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 32.7% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 63.2% win rate for white (61 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.2%) outperforms Rapid (48.1%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 41.5% (90% CI: 37.2%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 349 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 266 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 433 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 13.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 397 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-61.4%) win rate for white, based on 331 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 489 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 705 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 240 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-56.4%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-51.9%) win rate for white (463 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.