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Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation

127K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.8%Based on 127K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.8%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%3.5%51.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e5
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
Analyzen=127K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 46.8%), based on 127K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.1% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (23,081 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.3% win rate (21,144 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.9% win rate (19,363 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (17,600 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (14,688 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (13,088 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (10,891 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.3% win rate (6,278 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (1,095 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.1% win rate (1,974 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (45,562 games)
  • Blitz: 44.6% win rate (51,298 games)
  • Rapid: 42.4% win rate (27,049 games)
  • Classical: 35.4% win rate (1,345 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,888 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (11,648 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (7,464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (4,486 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (9,179 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (7,143 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (5,311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (7,952 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (5,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (7,034 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (3,509 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (406 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (624 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,662 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (987 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (164 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (6,381 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (3,871 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,818 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 23.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 127K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.8%) outperforms Bullet (50.7%) by 9.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.6%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a 59.8% (90% CI: 57.6%-62.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.