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Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation

127K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.6%

40%55%
Floor46.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.8%.

Measured over 127K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 127K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
127K
Best context
50.0% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Worst context
41.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.1% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.1% at 0-999, 31.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,888 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (11,648 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (7,464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (4,486 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (9,179 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (7,143 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (5,311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (7,952 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (5,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (7,034 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (3,509 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (406 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (624 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,662 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (987 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (164 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (6,381 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (3,871 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,818 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 23.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation scores 46.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.3% and 46.8% — from 127K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
127K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 127K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.7% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.5% in Blitz (51K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (27K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 51.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.