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Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation

1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.4%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 57.7%Based on 1.2K games
0%55.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 57.7%
Outcome Distribution
53.7%3.4%43.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.exd6
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=1.2K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 55.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 57.7%), based on 1.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.5% win rate (20 games)
  • 1000-1199: 62.4% win rate (41 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.2% win rate (89 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (151 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.9% win rate (176 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.3% win rate (229 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.0% win rate (260 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.4% win rate (163 games)
  • 2500+: 53.4% win rate (65 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (57%), worst in Bullet (52%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (452 games)
  • Blitz: 54.0% win rate (640 games)
  • Rapid: 57.4% win rate (97 games)
  • Classical: 53.8% win rate (5 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.4% win rate for white (163 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (54.0%) outperforms Bullet (52.1%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 176 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 229 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 163 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-56.0%) win rate for white (452 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-57.2%) win rate for white (640 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense, Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.