Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit
17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.
Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 17K
- Best context
- 51.7% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 44.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,601 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,897 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (829 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,716 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,416 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (471 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,579 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,148 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (409 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (44 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (1,257 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (981 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (333 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (968 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (744 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (234 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 25.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (520 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (478 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (138 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (191 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.1% expected score (149 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (50 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit scores 47.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 48.0% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate?
Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit perform best?
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.4% (4.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.5% in Blitz (6.8K games) against 47.2% in Rapid (2.4K games).
How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit?
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 367 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 52.2%, draws 0.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 168 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit a good opening?
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.8% of its games and loses 51.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.