5.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 47.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 48.6%), based on 5.7K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 44% → 50%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (482 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.5%) outperforms Rapid (40.0%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 684 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 37.8% (90% CI: 32.8%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 38.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 192 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 34.6% (90% CI: 30.0%-39.4%) win rate for white, based on 280 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 38.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 388 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.0%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 750 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 482 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit has a 40.0% (90% CI: 36.8%-43.3%) win rate for white (607 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Wheeler Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.