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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.2%.

Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
75K
Best context
50.1% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
42.7% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.5 · Trap factor: +16.9 · 75K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 35.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (510 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (903 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (983 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (1,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (2,421 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (987 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (2,514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (4,279 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (4,394 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (8,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,539 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (739 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,584 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (4,132 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,877 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (386 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.2% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.6% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.6% in Blitz (35K games) against 45.0% in Rapid (7.6K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.4%, draws 8.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 39.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 248 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.9% of its games and loses 51.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.