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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line

105K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.0%

40%55%
Floor44.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.2%.

Measured over 105K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 105K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
105K
Best context
53.3% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
41.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.2% at 0-999, 55.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (693 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,693 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (736 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,476 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,490 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,929 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (577 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (4,874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (9,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (14,304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,678 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (12,959 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (17,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (12,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (5,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (429 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (2,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line scores 45.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.7% and 45.2% — from 105K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
105K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 105K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.8% (3.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (49K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (7.2K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 135 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 281 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.4% of its games and loses 53.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.