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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.8%Based on 42K games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%3.2%50.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bc5
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit
Analyzen=42K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.8%), based on 42K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.1% win rate (1,864 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (2,627 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (4,507 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (7,102 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (8,508 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (8,351 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (5,180 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (2,779 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (594 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Rapid (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.8% win rate (346 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (16,923 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (19,550 games)
  • Rapid: 44.7% win rate (4,577 games)
  • Classical: 52.3% win rate (116 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (549 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,043 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (419 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,289 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,717 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (2,820 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (3,093 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (4,508 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (697 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,235 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (577 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 23.0% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (8.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.3%) outperforms Classical (44.7%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.9%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 594 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 41.5%-50.3%) win rate for white (346 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.1%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.5%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 37.2%-52.2%) win rate for white (116 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.