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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.4%

45%55%
Floor48.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 42K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 42K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
42K
Best context
54.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
44.0% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 34.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (549 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,043 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (419 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,289 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,717 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (2,820 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (3,093 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (4,508 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (697 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,235 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (577 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 23.0% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.8% — from 42K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
42K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (1.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (20K games) against 46.7% in Rapid (4.6K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 594 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 52.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 346 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 52.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 116 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Bielefelder Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.