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Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.5%

40%55%
Floor45.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.

Measured over 47K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 47K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
47K
Best context
50.2% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
39.1% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.1% at 0-999, 28.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (801 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,340 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (4,355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (5,878 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,662 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (3,668 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (2,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.1% expected score (338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (419 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 11.9% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation scores 45.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.1% and 45.8% — from 47K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
47K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (4.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.2% in Blitz (24K games) against 44.9% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 660 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 30.8%, draws 11.6% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.6%. It rests on 253 Lichess games, which average 51 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 184 Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 32.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 62.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.0%. It rests on 593 Lichess games.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.6% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.