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Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 45.1% – 45.8%Based on 47K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.1% – 45.8%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%3.6%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...a6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 45.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.1% and 45.8%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.3% win rate (4,165 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (7,184 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.8% win rate (9,737 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.1% win rate (10,562 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.0% win rate (8,010 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (5,536 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (1,341 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (660 games)
  • 2500+: 30.8% win rate (253 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.1% win rate (184 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (8,236 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (24,109 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (14,326 games)
  • Classical: 32.0% win rate (593 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (801 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,340 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (4,355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (5,878 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,662 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (3,668 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (2,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.1% expected score (338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (419 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 11.9% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (62.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 660 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 253 Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 11.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-58.0%) win rate for white (184 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.6%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 62.0% (90% CI: 58.7%-65.2%) win rate for white (593 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.