What is the Petrov's Defense expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Petrov's Defense family has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.0%), aggregated from 38 variations and 16M Lichess games.
Petrov's Defense
38 variations · 16M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Petrov's Defense leaves Black at 48.0% — consider alternatives.
The minimum advantage of -4.2% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.0%Aggregated from 38 variations
0%48.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.0%
ContextOverall · n=16M
Outcome Distribution
46.1%3.8%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxe4
Petrov's Defense
Variations38
Games (Context)16M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.8%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall
#1Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall TrapTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6 7.O-O O-O 8.c4 Bg4 9.cxd5 f5 10.Re1 Bxh2+
Min adv +56.0% · n=136
#2Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nc6
Min adv +3.9% · n=1.8M
#3Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nxe4 4.Qe2 Qe7
Min adv -1.3% · n=183K
#4Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Nc6
Min adv -1.7% · n=16K
#5Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6
Min adv -1.8% · n=47K
#6Petrov's Defense
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6
Min adv -2.1% · n=3.0M
#7Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 Nxe4 4.Bd3 Nc6
Min adv -2.5% · n=4.6K
#8Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 5.Nxe5 Bd6 6.O-O O-O 7.c4 Bxe5
Min adv -7.0% · n=1.6K
#9Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6 7.O-O O-O 8.c4 c6
Min adv -8.3% · n=33K
#10Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 d5
Min adv -8.5% · n=89K
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 45% → 38%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 44.7% win rate (2,002,186 games)
- 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (2,295,997 games)
- 1200-1399: 46.3% win rate (2,843,814 games)
- 1400-1599: 46.8% win rate (3,125,797 games)
- 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (2,743,299 games)
- 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (1,882,376 games)
- 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (910,570 games)
- 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (405,495 games)
- 2500+: 38.0% win rate (83,418 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (37,195 games)
- Bullet: 47.7% win rate (4,270,144 games)
- Blitz: 46.0% win rate (8,091,368 games)
- Rapid: 44.4% win rate (3,745,301 games)
- Classical: 41.7% win rate (148,944 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (2,171 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (374,798 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (892,495 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (725,614 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (7,108 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (4,631 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (541,504 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,114,066 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (616,370 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (19,426 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (8,607 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (695,165 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,449,521 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (660,798 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (29,723 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (9,867 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (769,376 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,595,073 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (707,201 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (44,280 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (5,531 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (701,688 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,438,550 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (566,498 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (31,032 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (3,736 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (559,609 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (978,859 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (326,599 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (13,573 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (1,900 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (351,483 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (438,854 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (115,394 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (2,939 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (650 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (218,678 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (160,541 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (24,999 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (627 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (102 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (57,843 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (23,409 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (1,828 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (236 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (38)
1
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Trap136 games
2
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit1.8M games
3
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation589 games
Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit5.2K games
Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack66K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation7.3K games
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit183K games
Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation33K games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Attack36K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation16K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation47K games
Petrov's Defense3.0M games
Petrov's Defense: French Attack127K games
Petrov's Defense: Millennium Attack27K games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation4.6K games
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Bishop Check Line57K games
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack311K games
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game4.3M games
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation3.6M games
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit26K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Jaenisch Variation4.6K games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack1.3M games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation1.6K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack157K games
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Center Variation28K games
Petrov's Defense: Nimzowitsch Attack167K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack1.9K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation33K games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation89K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation28K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation20K games
Petrov's Defense: Kaufmann Attack8.0K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line3.4K games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation88K games
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation779K games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit515 games
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation816 games
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation302 games
Analyze Petrov's Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Petrov's Defense win rate?
The Petrov's Defense family has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, aggregated from 38 variations and 16M rated games from Lichess.
How many Petrov's Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 38 Petrov's Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Petrov's Defense perform best?
The Petrov's Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (2.3M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Petrov's Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Classical (53.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.7%) by 3.5% across all Petrov's Defense variations.
How sharp is the Petrov's Defense?
Petrov's Defense games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Petrov's Defense a good opening family?
The Petrov's Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 38 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.