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Petrov's Defense

38 variations · 16M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

48.0%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 16M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#34 of 62
Games in this context
16M
Best context
55.8% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.4% at 1000-1199 Classical
Variations measured
38
Average game length
31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall TrapBest here
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6 7.O-O O-O 8.c4 Bg4 9.cxd5 f5 10.Re1 Bxh2+
Floor 78.0% · 136 games
83.5%
#2Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nc6
Floor 52.0% · 1.8M games
52.0%
#3Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nxe4 4.Qe2 Qe7
Floor 49.4% · 183K games
49.6%
#4Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Nc6
Floor 49.2% · 16K games
49.8%
#5Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6
Floor 49.1% · 47K games
49.5%
#6Petrov's Defense
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6
Floor 49.0% · 3.0M games
49.0%
#7Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 Nxe4 4.Bd3 Nc6
Floor 48.8% · 4.6K games
50.0%
#8Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 5.Nxe5 Bd6 6.O-O O-O 7.c4 Bxe5
Floor 46.5% · 1.6K games
48.6%
#9Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Bd6 7.O-O O-O 8.c4 c6
Floor 45.9% · 33K games
46.3%
#10Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 d5
Floor 45.8% · 89K games
46.0%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.3% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (2,171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (374,798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (892,495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (725,614 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (7,108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (4,631 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (541,504 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,114,066 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (616,370 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (19,426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (8,607 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (695,165 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,449,521 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (660,798 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (29,723 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (9,867 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (769,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,595,073 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (707,201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (44,280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (5,531 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (701,688 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,438,550 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (566,498 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (31,032 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (3,736 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (559,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (978,859 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (326,599 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (13,573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (1,900 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (351,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (438,854 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (115,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (2,939 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (650 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (218,678 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (160,541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (24,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (57,843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (23,409 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (1,828 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (236 games)

38 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Trap136 games
83.5%Floor 78.0%
2
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit1.8M games
52.0%Floor 52.0%
3
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation589 games
54.8%Floor 51.4%
Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit5.2K games
52.5%Floor 51.3%
Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack66K games
50.6%Floor 50.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation7.3K games
50.4%Floor 49.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit183K games
49.6%Floor 49.4%
Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation33K games
49.7%Floor 49.2%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Attack36K games
49.6%Floor 49.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation16K games
49.8%Floor 49.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation47K games
49.5%Floor 49.1%
Petrov's Defense3.0M games
49.0%Floor 49.0%
Petrov's Defense: French Attack127K games
49.2%Floor 48.9%
Petrov's Defense: Millennium Attack27K games
49.4%Floor 48.9%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation4.6K games
50.0%Floor 48.8%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Bishop Check Line57K games
49.0%Floor 48.6%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack311K games
48.2%Floor 48.1%
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game4.3M games
47.9%Floor 47.8%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation3.6M games
47.5%Floor 47.5%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit26K games
47.9%Floor 47.4%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Jaenisch Variation4.6K games
48.0%Floor 46.8%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack1.3M games
46.8%Floor 46.7%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation1.6K games
48.6%Floor 46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack157K games
46.6%Floor 46.3%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Center Variation28K games
46.8%Floor 46.3%
Petrov's Defense: Nimzowitsch Attack167K games
46.3%Floor 46.1%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack1.9K games
48.0%Floor 46.1%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation33K games
46.3%Floor 45.9%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation89K games
46.0%Floor 45.8%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation28K games
46.0%Floor 45.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation20K games
45.5%Floor 44.9%
Petrov's Defense: Kaufmann Attack8.0K games
45.6%Floor 44.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line3.4K games
45.6%Floor 44.4%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation88K games
44.3%Floor 44.0%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation779K games
39.5%Floor 39.4%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit515 games
42.0%Floor 38.4%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation816 games
40.2%Floor 37.4%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation302 games
41.0%Floor 36.4%
Analyze Petrov's Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense family scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 48.0% — from 16M Lichess games across 38 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
16M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense win rate?

Across the Petrov's Defense's 38 variations, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 16M rated games from Lichess.

How many Petrov's Defense variations are there?

38 Petrov's Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense perform best?

The Petrov's Defense family performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.7% (2.7M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Petrov's Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Petrov's Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (8.1M games) against 46.7% in Rapid (3.7M games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense?

Petrov's Defense games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Petrov's Defense a good opening family?

The Petrov's Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.1% and loses 50.2%. Results differ between its 38 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.