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Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation

779K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

39.5%

35%55%
Floor39.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.6%.

Measured over 779K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 779K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
779K
Best context
48.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
27.5% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
26 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.1% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 41.2% at 0-999, 36.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (34,024 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (106,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (116,873 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (158 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (26,353 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (80,273 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (74,631 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (3,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (159 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (20,805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (59,550 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (49,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (3,837 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (16,218 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (42,079 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (30,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.5% expected score (3,685 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (11,471 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (28,371 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (14,321 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.8% expected score (1,296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (8,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (17,218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (5,781 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.3% expected score (300 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (7,564 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (2,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (3,254 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,885 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (504 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (942 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (320 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack
48.6%
Continuations (1)
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation scores 39.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 39.4% and 39.6% — from 779K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
779K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Black wins 37.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 779K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.7% (6.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 40.5% in Blitz (344K games) against 37.3% in Rapid (294K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 37.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 258K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 61.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.3%. It rests on 185K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 36.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 60.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.1%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 37.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 59.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.0%, draws 7.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 42.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 908 Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 126K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 38.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 344K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 35.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 60.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.3%. It rests on 294K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 29.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 66.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.6% of its games and loses 58.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.