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Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor53.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.3M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.3M
Best context
60.5% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
51.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.4% at 0-999, 58.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (26,842 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (48,043 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (30,623 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (47,537 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (58,016 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (27,251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (726 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (983 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (68,452 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (83,518 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (29,695 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (89,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (106,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (34,407 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (1,710 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (972 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (91,732 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (115,239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (30,912 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (1,469 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (82,522 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (88,788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (22,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (53,546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (41,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (9,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (187 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (32,566 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (11,195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (6,018 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack
48.6%
Continuations (6)
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation
52.0%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation
52.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Attack
48.2%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation
45.0%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation
47.6%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation
58.7%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.3% — from 1.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.8% (134K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (554K games) against 53.6% in Rapid (187K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 184K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 234K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 240K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 195K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.2%, draws 8.6% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 55.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 498K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 554K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 187K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.5% of its games and loses 45.1%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.