TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%Based on 1.3M games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%3.4%45.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...exd4
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
Analyzen=1.3M
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.3%), based on 1.3M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.6% win rate (105,904 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (133,999 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (183,753 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.9% win rate (233,562 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.6% win rate (240,324 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (195,229 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (105,427 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (45,847 games)
  • 2500+: 50.2% win rate (7,267 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Blitz (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.2% win rate (5,274 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (498,261 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (554,416 games)
  • Rapid: 51.5% win rate (187,007 games)
  • Classical: 53.5% win rate (6,354 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (26,842 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (48,043 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (30,623 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (47,537 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (58,016 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (27,251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (726 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (983 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (68,452 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (83,518 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (29,695 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (89,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (106,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (34,407 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (1,710 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (972 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (91,732 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (115,239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (30,912 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (1,469 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (82,522 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (88,788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (22,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (53,546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (41,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (9,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (187 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (32,566 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (11,195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (6,018 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Continuations (6)
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Attack
48.2%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation
52.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation
45.0%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation
58.7%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation
52.0%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation
47.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (134K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.2%) outperforms Blitz (51.3%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 106K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 184K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 234K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 240K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 195K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.3%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (498K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (554K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.7%) win rate for white (187K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.5%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.