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Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation

3.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.5%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.6M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.6M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.6M
Best context
56.5% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Worst context
46.6% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 47.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (624 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (88,766 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (218,029 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (184,388 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (132,995 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (288,938 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (153,894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (4,566 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (2,706 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (168,910 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (361,847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (165,332 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (6,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (2,576 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (176,994 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (366,976 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (170,341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (8,779 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (150,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (307,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (129,702 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (104,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (172,524 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (67,598 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (2,371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (54,716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (47,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (14,583 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (25,143 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (6,764 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (3,699 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack
48.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.6% — from 3.6M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.6M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 3.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (582K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.7% in Blitz (1.8M games) against 53.5% in Rapid (887K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 493K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 582K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 706K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 726K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 595K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 347K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 0.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 906K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 887K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.