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Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit

1.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.0%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.1%Based on 1.8M games
0%48.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%3.1%50.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...dxc6
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
Analyzen=1.8M
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 48.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.1%), based on 1.8M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (83,522 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (170,838 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.3% win rate (304,358 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (406,899 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (378,923 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (260,574 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (114,391 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.2% win rate (41,141 games)
  • 2500+: 48.5% win rate (5,569 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.2% win rate (2,335 games)
  • Bullet: 47.2% win rate (498,713 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (907,053 games)
  • Rapid: 45.8% win rate (347,843 games)
  • Classical: 47.1% win rate (10,271 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.7% expected score (214 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (32,905 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (34,112 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (16,168 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (502 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (57,085 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (84,446 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (28,376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (525 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (83,125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (163,135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (56,400 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (99,462 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (213,763 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (89,960 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (3,171 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (87,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (200,899 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (86,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (3,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (140 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (68,229 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (140,329 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (50,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (40,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (56,818 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (16,979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (25,343 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,911 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (4,783 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (718 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (114K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.2%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 171K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 304K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 407K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 379K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 261K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.5%-44.9%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white (499K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.4%) win rate for white (907K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white (348K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.0%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.