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Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation

4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.0%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 51.2%Based on 4.6K games
0%50.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%10.1%45.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nc6
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation
Analyzen=4.6K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness90%
Draw Rate10.1%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 50.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.2%), based on 4.6K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.8% win rate (61 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (33 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.8% win rate (42 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (39 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.5% win rate (103 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (273 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (993 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.7% win rate (2,025 games)
  • 2500+: 38.3% win rate (999 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.8% win rate (14 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (1,171 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (2,940 games)
  • Rapid: 45.8% win rate (401 games)
  • Classical: 31.0% win rate (42 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (157 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (715 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (127 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,485 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (494 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 58.4% win rate for white (61 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.3%) outperforms Rapid (42.6%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a sharpness score of 89.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 40.3%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 35.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 273 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 38.8%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 999 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 16.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-47.6%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.8%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 38.6%-46.7%) win rate for white (401 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.6%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.