Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation

4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
4...Nc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.0%

45%55%
Floor48.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.2%.

Measured over 4.6K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 10.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.6K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.6K
Best context
55.2% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
48.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
89.9%
Draws
10.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.2% at 0-999, 47.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (157 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (715 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (127 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,485 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (494 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation scores 50.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 51.2% — from 4.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation, Black wins 44.9%, draws 10.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (993 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (2.9K games) against 51.6% in Rapid (401 games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation has a sharpness score of 89.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.5%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 103 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.6%, draws 7.5% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 273 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 8.4% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 993 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 9.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.3%, draws 16.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 999 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.1%, draws 9.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 9.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.8%, draws 11.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 401 Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.9% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.