Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation
816 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
59.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 62.6%.
Measured over 816 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 816 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 816
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.7%
- Draws
- 2.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 61.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 69.9% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (66 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (80 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.1% expected score (30 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (77 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 77.9% expected score (38 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 75.7% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation scores 59.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.0% and 62.6% — from 816 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 816+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate?
Playing the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation, White wins 58.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 816 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation perform best?
The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 64.9% (76 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 60.0% in Blitz (388 games) against 60.1% in Rapid (171 games).
How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation?
The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 57.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 139 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 158 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 56.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 136 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 59.9%, draws 0.6% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 248 Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 58.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 388 Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 58.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 171 Lichess games.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation a good opening?
The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 58.7% of its games and loses 39.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.