Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack
66K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 66K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 66K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 66K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.1% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 49.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,212 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (3,679 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (3,438 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (37 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,263 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,148 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (2,243 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (85 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,481 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,670 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,221 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (128 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,939 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (4,667 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,323 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (191 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (6,434 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (2,298 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,834 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (7,095 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,347 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,539 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,420 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,202 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,205 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (2,616 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (268 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (466 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (452 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack scores 49.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.8% — from 66K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 66K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate?
Playing the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 66K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack perform best?
The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (36K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (16K games).
How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack?
The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.8%, draws 7.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.8%, draws 8.6% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 928 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 720 Lichess games.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack a good opening?
The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.1% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.